Hedera (HBAR) wrapped up July with an impressive 85% surge, delivering its best monthly showing this year. Despite this strong momentum, August presents a challenging historical backdrop for the token.
Data from the past five years reveals August as one of HBAR’s weakest months, with an average return of -3.26% and a median of just 0.31%. The token has managed only one strong green close during August across this timeframe, occurring in 2021, while most other years concluded flat or in negative territory.
Whale Activity Reaches Saturation Levels
On-chain metrics show significant accumulation by major holders throughout July. Large wallets containing 1 million or more HBAR tokens expanded their ownership from 64% to 77% of the supply. Meanwhile, whale addresses holding 10 million-plus tokens now control 96% of the total circulation.
While this accumulation pattern helped fuel July’s rally, the heavy concentration among whales suggests limited fresh capital may be available to maintain the same buying pressure. Any reduction in whale purchasing activity could create room for a pullback in August.
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Technical Indicators Show Mixed Signals
Derivatives data from Bitget reveals long positions heavily outweighing shorts, with $122.75 million in long leverage compared to $49 million in shorts. This positioning creates potential downside risk, as liquidation clusters near $0.2182 could trigger accelerated selling if prices decline.
On-Balance Volume continues its upward trajectory, indicating buying activity still exceeds selling pressure overall. However, maintaining levels above 41.71 billion will be crucial for sustaining momentum through August.
The Bull-Bear Power indicator briefly turned negative during one session last week before recovering to positive territory. This suggests bulls maintain control, though their grip appears less secure than in previous weeks.
From a structural perspective, HBAR trades within a descending triangle on weekly charts, a pattern that typically carries bearish implications even during uptrends. Key support levels at $0.26 and $0.23 are currently holding, but breaks below these zones could quickly shift the technical outlook negative.
Daily Fibonacci retracement analysis identifies the same support zones at $0.26, $0.23, and $0.21. Bulls defending these areas could enable a retest of $0.29-$0.30 resistance. A clean breakout above $0.30 would signal August might buck its historically weak performance.
Potential Market Implications
The confluence of weak historical August performance, elevated whale holdings, and mixed technical signals suggests HBAR faces headwinds in the near term. Market participants may exercise increased caution given the token’s seasonal patterns and current positioning dynamics.
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