Bitcoin may be entering the final leg of its current bull market cycle, with historical halving-based fractals suggesting that the next major market top could arrive by October, just three months away.
Historical Patterns Point to October Peak
A recurring “tick-tock” fractal tracked by analyst CryptoBullet shows that Bitcoin tends to peak approximately 518 to 546 days after each halving event. The most recent halving occurred on April 15, 2024.
As of late July, Bitcoin has reached a point where there are only 77 days left before the BTC price establishes a post-halving bull market peak, if history repeats. CryptoBullet noted: “BTC Bull Cycle: only 3 months left. Tick tock, tick tock.”
Hey @scottmelker
If Bitcoin can regain the broken parabolic slope then $BTC is on target to reach the bull market cycle top in the $125k to $150K level by Aug/Sep 2025, then a 50%+ correction pic.twitter.com/WUUzxl0ckn— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) May 1, 2025
That places the next potential top by October. Many analysts anticipate BTC’s price to reach between $130,000 and $150,000 by the year’s end, with some even predicting a bull run toward $200,000.
On-Chain Data Supports Continued Rally
On-chain data further supports a Bitcoin price rally in the coming months. A key metric comparing the activity of new versus old investors, published by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., shows that young coins, representing recent buyers, now account for 30% of overall market activity.
The current 30% level is well below the overheated peaks of 64% in March 2024 and 72% in December 2024. Both those spikes coincided with local price tops, suggesting that when new investor activity dominates the market, it often marks a period of euphoria and profit-taking.
In contrast, today’s reading still allows room for further upside before such conditions set in. The uptrend signals growing demand from new entrants. Meanwhile, long-term holders have not yet shown signs of capitulation.
“Old holders are still selling moderately: a coefficient of 0.3 means that the supply of three-year-old coins is still absorbing young demand without sharp fluctuations,” Adler Jr. writes, adding: “From the perspective of old wallet capitulation risk, the market looks balanced.”
This ongoing equilibrium is partly due to strong absorption from institutions. Corporations and ETFs continue to accumulate Bitcoin at a steady pace, helping offset intermittent sell-side pressure.
As a result, sufficient supply absorption by these large players has been able to contain short-term selling pressures, keeping the market structurally healthy as it pushes deeper into the late stages of the bull cycle.
Potential Market Implications
The combination of historical patterns and supportive on-chain metrics could strengthen bullish sentiment among traders and investors. This analysis may encourage increased accumulation activity as market participants position for a potential October peak.
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