Dogecoin has entered bear market territory after experiencing a sharp decline of over 23% from its monthly peak, dropping to lows of $0.2200 – its weakest level since July 18. Despite this downturn mirroring the broader meme coin selloff, several technical and fundamental factors suggest DOGE could be positioned for a potential recovery.
Technical Indicators Signal Potential Reversal
The most compelling technical development for Dogecoin involves the formation of a golden cross pattern on the daily chart, where the 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average. This bullish signal historically precedes extended upward price movements, as demonstrated when DOGE rallied more than 270% following a similar golden cross formation in October of last year.
Additional technical analysis reveals a double-bottom pattern established at $0.1467 with a neckline positioned at $0.2596, representing May’s peak price level. The 44% distance between these key levels projects a potential upside target of $0.3763 if the pattern completes successfully. Furthermore, DOGE appears to be progressing through the second stage of an Elliott Wave sequence, which typically precedes the third wave – often the most bullish and extended phase of the cycle.
ETF Approval Hopes Drive Optimism
Market sentiment has been buoyed by increasing speculation around potential SEC approval of a spot Dogecoin ETF, with approval odds now estimated at 75%. Major financial firms including Grayscale, Bitwise, REX Shares, and 21Shares have submitted applications to the regulatory body for DOGE-based exchange-traded funds.
Based on similarities to previous bull runs, the likeliness of $DOGE pushing over +226% from here to reach and break above the All Time High at $0.73905 is EXTREMELY HIGH!
History also points to Dogecoin climbing above the $1.42 and $2.11 levels after, which is increase of more… pic.twitter.com/knJOk6VGfQ
— JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) July 30, 2025
The approval prospects appear favorable given Dogecoin’s proof-of-work consensus mechanism, similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum which have already secured ETF approvals. Should the SEC greenlight these products, substantial institutional inflows could follow the precedent set by Bitcoin ETFs, which have attracted nearly $56 billion in assets, while Ethereum ETFs have garnered approximately $10 billion.
The broader cryptocurrency market shows signs of potential recovery, with Bitcoin forming a bullish pennant pattern that often signals upward price continuation. Such a development would likely benefit alternative cryptocurrencies including Dogecoin and other meme tokens like Pepe, as altcoins typically follow Bitcoin’s directional momentum during market rallies.
Near-Term Market Outlook
Despite these bullish catalysts, the prevailing negative market sentiment suggests continued volatility and potential downside pressure in the immediate term. Traders should monitor key support levels closely as broader crypto market weakness may override individual technical patterns.
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